In August 2025 the United States put a 50 percent duty on most Indian goods. Monthly exports to the US fell from about 8.1 billion dollars to about 6.5 billion within months. The duties were eased in early 2026, and the financial year still closed at 87.3 billion dollars of exports to the US, marginally above the year before. That was not a recovery. It was a warning that got ignored because the number ended up flat.
Now the threat is 100 percent. Legislation moving through the US Congress would allow tariffs of up to 100 percent on goods from countries that keep buying Russian oil, and India is named in every version of the debate. Whether it passes, and whether it is enforced, is not in your control. The share of your business that depends on one buyer country is.
Why this matters more than the headline
The US takes roughly one fifth of everything India exports. For some sectors it is far more: shrimp, gems and jewellery, home textiles, garments, pharmaceuticals and engineering components all lean heavily on American buyers. An exporter with 70 percent of turnover in the US is not running a business; it is running a bet on Washington. Last year's 50 percent duty proved what happens when the bet goes wrong. Orders paused, buyers asked for discounts to absorb the duty, and the exporters who survived were those who already had a second and third market ready to take the volume.
Diversification is not a slogan. It is a specific plan to move a defined share of turnover to named markets within a defined time. Here is the plan we would build for an Indian exporter today, in the order the markets should be opened.
First, the Gulf: closest, fastest, already buying
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait are three to seven days by sea from Indian ports, pay in dollars or dirhams, and already know Indian products. India's agreement with the UAE has been in force since 2022 and the one with Oman was implemented this year, so most goods enter at zero or reduced duty. Food, textiles, engineering goods, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and building materials all move here in volume. A first Gulf order can be closed in 60 to 90 days if the product is ready. This is where displaced US volume should go first, because it needs the least change to the product.
Second, the United Kingdom: the agreement is live
The India-UK trade agreement is in force, and it removed duties on the bulk of Indian goods lines, with textiles, leather, footwear, gems, marine products and processed foods gaining the most. British retailers and importers are actively looking for non-Chinese, non-EU supply. The standards are close to EU standards, so the compliance work you do for Britain carries over to Europe later. Budget four to six months from first contact to first order.
Third, the European Union: prepare now, sell from 2027
The India-EU agreement is expected to be signed in December 2026 and to take effect in early 2027, making about 93 percent of Indian exports to the EU duty-free. It is the largest single opening India has had in a generation, and it is also the market with the toughest standards on residues, chemicals, labelling and deforestation. Use the next five months to build the compliance file so that the day the duties fall, you already have buyers waiting. We have published a separate month-by-month EU readiness plan on this blog.
Fourth, New Zealand and Australia: small, rich, open
The India-New Zealand agreement takes effect on 20 October 2026 and the Australian agreement has been running since 2022. Neither market is large, but both pay well, both have big Indian-origin populations, and both are short on the food, textile and engineering products India makes. They are good third and fourth markets, not first ones, because volumes per order are smaller and freight is longer.
What to do with the US business you keep
Do not walk away from American buyers. Change the terms. Quote on a delivered-duty-unpaid basis so the tariff is visibly the buyer's cost, not yours. Shorten contract periods so a duty change does not lock you into a losing price. Ask for part payment in advance on new orders. And tell your US buyers, plainly, that you are opening other markets; a buyer who knows you have options negotiates differently from one who thinks you depend on them.
A realistic target
If the US is more than half your turnover today, aim to bring it under 40 percent within 12 months and under a third within 24, by adding markets rather than cutting the US. That means one Gulf buyer active by the end of this quarter, a UK buyer by the second quarter of 2027, and EU buyers sampling by the time the agreement takes effect. Write those three dates down. Diversification that is not dated does not happen.
How JB Experts works with you
JB Experts is a global export management company. Every export runs under your own company name and your own IEC. We manage the work and represent your company with buyers. We are not brokers or commission agents. You pay for a defined service, and every deliverable is written into your agreement.
Consultation, Rs 10,000 + GST: a 60-minute strategy call on your product, markets and next steps. Book at meeting.jbexperts.com/#/60min
Build With Me, Rs 1,18,000 including taxes: 12 months of live sessions, Monday to Friday, where you build your own export business with our team reviewing your work every week. www.jbexperts.com/build-with-me
Build With Me 121, Rs 6,50,000 + GST: the same 12-month build, one-to-one, shaped around your product and your buyers. www.jbexperts.com/build-with-me
Done For You, Rs 20 Lakh + GST for agro products and Rs 30 Lakh + GST for non-agro: our team runs your complete export operation for 24 months with a written 10x export turnover commitment. www.jbexperts.com/done-for-you
Export intelligence reports on specific products and markets: shop.jbexperts.com
